This Trend Says Half the Field May Already Be Eliminated From Winning THE PLAYERS

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — We’re mere hours away from the start of THE PLAYERS Championship, and there’s no shortage of storylines to keep an eye on as the week unfolds.

Not only will Brian Rolapp address the media for the first time since the TOUR Championship—no doubt touching on the future of the PGA TOUR’s schedule—but questions also surround the health of the tournament’s defending champion.

So without further ado, here are three storylines I’ll be watching closely at THE PLAYERS.

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Rory McIlroy and His Nagging Back

Last weekend, defending PLAYERS champion Rory McIlroy was forced to withdraw from the Arnold Palmer Invitational after tweaking his back in the gym and experiencing discomfort on the range.

McIlroy has been back home in South Florida receiving treatment, but the injury has been more stubborn than he initially hoped.

On Tuesday, Todd Lewis reported that McIlroy plans to travel to Ponte Vedra on Wednesday after continuing treatment. His caddie, Harry Diamond, has already been at TPC Sawgrass getting a lay of the land.

With a third PLAYERS title on the line—not to mention his title defense at the Masters just a month away—the status of McIlroy’s health will undoubtedly be one of the biggest storylines of the week.

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The Eye-Opening Wave Trend

I don’t usually put too much emphasis on tee-time waves—unless weather is expected to play a major role.

But this stat from the last few decades at TPC Sawgrass caught my attention.

Since 2007, fourteen PLAYERS champions have come from the early/late wave—an early tee time on Thursday followed by a late tee time on Friday. Scottie Scheffler in 2024 and McIlroy in 2025, however, were late/early.

If you think that stat influenced my favorite pick of the week—you’d be absolutely right.

A Big Opportunity for Jake Knapp

Not only does Jake Knapp tee off Thursday morning, but you’d be hard-pressed to find many players in the world playing better golf right now.

His worst finish of the season came at the Sony Open back in January, where he finished T-11. Since then, he’s rattled off four straight finishes of T-8 or better.

His withdrawal prior to the Arnold Palmer Invitational gives me a bit of pause, but expectations remain high.

Like Akshay Bhatia at Bay Hill, Knapp feels like a player the golf world is waiting on to take the next step—to break through and win a truly big event.

With a couple of starts already under his belt at Sawgrass—T-45 in his debut two years ago and T-12 last season—he now has the course knowledge needed to contend.

And this week might be the perfect opportunity.