Picks to Win & Best Bets for the Valero Texas Open

One event lies between us and the Masters. It’s ALMOST time.

But before we head down Magnolia Lane, a solid field has made its way to the Lone Star State for the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. If not already eligible, this week’s winner will receive an invitation into the year’s first major.

So, no pressure, guys.

The Swede Machine himself Ludvig Aberg headlines the tee sheet and is the betting favorite at 12/1. He’s joined by Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, and defending champion Akshay Bhatia.

Sunday’s victor will go home with $1.71 million of the $9.5 million purse and 500 FedEx Cup points.

Let’s try to go back-to-back after our big win at the Texas Children’s Houston Open thanks to Min Woo Lee!

Golf Course & Course History

TPC San Antonio | Par 72 | 7,438 yards

Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open

Ludvig Aberg (+1200)

Tommy Fleetwood (+1400)

Corey Conners (+1800)

Patrick Cantlay (+2000)

Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)

Jordan Spieth (+2200)

Keegan Bradley (+2500)

Akshay Bhatia (+2800)

Denny McCarthy (+3000)

Si Woo Kim (+3500)

Keith Mitchell (+4000)

Tony Finau (+4000)

Daniel Berger (+4000)

Tom Kim (+4500)

Maverick McNealy (+5000)

Sam Burns (+5000)

Samuel Stevens (+5500)

Bud Cauley (+5500)

Gary Woodland (+5500)

J.T. Poston (+5500)

Picks to Win the Valero Texas Open

Denny McCarthy (30/1)

Denny McCarthy. THE PLAYERS Championship 2025. (Photo: Getty Images)

McCarthy is golfing his ball this season. He’s eight-for-eight making it to the weekend and has finished 18th or better in four of his last five starts. As for his history at the Valero, he lost in a playoff to Akshay Bhatia last season and tied for 18th in 2022. He’s one of the best putters in the world and is ranked 27th in Strokes Gained: Approach, so if he hits fairways he’ll have plenty of good looks for birdies.

I've been chasing a Denny win for years, but I do love this spot for him. Plus, it's never a bad thing to back a player who can make everything he looks at. A 62 is always on the table for Denny.

Daniel Berger (40/1)

Daniel Berger. THE PLAYERS Championship. (Photo: Getty Images)

Berger’s been one of the most consistent players on TOUR this season. Since missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open in January, Berger has finished T-2, 12th, T-25, T-15, and T-20 over his last five starts. Fairways are tough to hit at this track, but Berger is ranked 10th in driving accuracy so far this season.

It's great to see DB Strait Vibin' back to playing great golf. Honestly, 40/1 is a GREAT number for what he's done to this point of the season. This is probably my favorite play of the week. We'll see if he comes through.

Sam Stevens (55/1)

Sam Stevens. Texas Children's Houston Open 2025. (Photo: Getty Images)

Stevens played some great golf down the road in Houston last week, tying for 18th at Memorial Park. In his two trips to TPC San Antonio, Stevens has finished second (2023) and T-14 (2024). He’s from Fort Worth, Texas, so the home-game models also love his chances.

Stevens isn't a widely-known name, but he does have game—see what I did there? But the native Texan has played great at this event and I love his chances of at least finishing inside the top 20.

Rico Hoey (70/1)

Rico Hoey. Texas Children's Houston Open 2025. (Photo: Getty Images)

Fairways are tough to hit around TPC San Antonio, but Hoey is one of the best drivers on TOUR. He’s second in SG: Off the Tee and 16th in driving accuracy. Hoey can get it going with the irons, too, as he’s ranked ninth in greens in regulation and 19th in proximity. The only problem with his game is his putter, but at last year’s Valero—he tied for 14th in his tournament debut—he read the greens well and was 23rd in SG: Putting. Last week, he tied for 11th in Houston.

Hoey is another lesser-known name that I'm rocking with this week. The course history and recent form was too much to ignore. Let's see if he comes through.

If you guys wanna get a little funky, a McCarthy-Berger-Stevens-Hoey top-20 parlay on FanDuel is +4092. Might be worth a flyer.