Picks to Win & Best Bets for THE PLAYERS Championship

Folks, it’s time for THE PLAYERS Championship.

One of the best weeks of the year is here and the best players in the world have made their way to TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, for the PGA TOUR’s flagship event.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler returns as the two-time defending champion a year after becoming the first player to ever win back-to-back PLAYERS. Since returning from injury, Scheffler hasn’t been in full flight but has recorded three T-11 or better finishes across four starts. We’ll see if he returns to his winning ways and captures a turkey.

Dozens of TOUR stars are joining Scheffler in the field including Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, and Justin Thomas.

Sunday’s winner will receive $4.5 million of the $25 million purse and 750 FedEx Cup points.

Now, let’s pick a winner.

Golf Course & Course History

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TPC Sawgrass | Par 72 | 7,352 yards | Pete Dye design

Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship

Scottie Scheffler (+400)

Rory McIlroy (+1000)

Collin Morikawa (+1200)

Ludvig Aberg (+1600)

Justin Thomas (+2000)

Xander Schauffele (+2200)

Hideki Matsuyama (+3300)

Tommy Fleetwood (+3300)

Russell Henley (+3500)

Shane Lowry (+4000)

Patrick Cantlay (+4000)

Keegan Bradley (+5000)

Sungjae Im (+5500)

Sepp Straka (+5500)

Corey Conners (+6000)

Jason Day (+6000)

Sam Burns (+6000)

Wyndham Clark (+6000)

Si Woo Kim (+6500)

Daniel Berger (+6500)

Stats and Notes to Keep in Mind

This golf course is built for ball-strikers. Here’s a stat from everybody’s favorite Twitter statistician, Justin Ray. Since the tournament’s moved back to March, four of the five winners ranked No. 1 for the week in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. So, I’ve targeted players who’ve been flushing it.

Also, this tournament is tough to predict based on course history. It’s volatile. For example, Scheffler missed the cut in 2021 and finished T-55 in 2022 before winning in 2023. So, don’t put too much stock in past finishes, but keep it in mind.

Picks to Win THE PLAYERS Championship

Ludvig Aberg (18/1)

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The Swede machine tied for 22nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. He played great golf three out of four days but struggled on Saturday, shooting a 77. He capped off the week with a beautiful 68 and I’m hoping that carries over into this week. Aberg lives in the Ponte Vedra area now and spends some time at TPC Sawgrass. He loves the golf course. At his PLAYERS debut last season, he finished eighth.

Tommy Fleetwood (30/1)

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The Englishman is flushing it. In his three starts this season, Fleetwood has ranked 11th (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am), seventh (Genesis Invitational), and 10th (API) in SG: Tee to Green. He’s made seven cuts in eight appearances at THE PLAYERS, highlighted by a T-7 finish in 2018 and a tie for fifth a year later. More recently, Fleetwood has three straight top-35 finishes at this event (2022-2024). The key for him will be starting fast. At the Genesis, he posted a 75 on Thursday then fired rounds of 68-69-68. Same thing happened at the API. He shot 75, then 72-69-68. If he shoots something under par during round one, watch out.

SI Woo Kim (65/1)

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Since missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, Kim has been playing some serious golf. He finished 12th at Pebble, T-21 in Phoenix, T-24 at the Genesis, and T-19 at the API. He's nine-for-nine making the cut at THE PLAYERS, and won the event in 2017. In recent years, Kim tied for ninth in 2021, for 27th in 2023, and was T6 last season.

Will Zalatoris (80/1)

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Willy Z was on the card last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He didn’t win, but it was a ball-striking display. He was fourth in SG: Off the Tee, seventh in SG: Approach, and sixth in SG: Tee to Green. He’s played some decent golf at TPC Sawgrass over the last four years, finishing 21st in 2021 and T-26 in 2022. If you’re not feeling him as an outright pick, he’s +210 to finish inside the top 20.

What Other Experts Are Thinking

On this week's episode of Dan On Golf, CBS' Rick Gehman picked Collin Morikawa (12/1) to win. Keith Stewart from Read The Line said don't overthink it and take Scottie to three-peat. This weekend is going to be fun.