Picks to Win & Best Bets for the Valspar Championship

The Valspar Championship has always been one of the most underrated stops on the PGA TOUR. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is fantastic, the weather in Palm Harbor, Florida, is pretty darn good this time of year, and the field is sneaky loaded. Like this year, 23 of the top 50 players in the world are just north of Tampa.

Some of those names include Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Will Zalatoris, Shane Lowry, and Tommy Fleetwood.

The eventual winner on Sunday will earn $1.566 million of the $8.7 million purse and 500 FedEx Cup points. And, before you ask, yes, this is the final event of the TOUR’s Florida Swing—but that only means we’re getting that much closer to the Masters.

Now, let’s jump into our preview for the week and make a few picks.

Golf Course & Course History

Copperhead Course | Par 71 | 7,352 yards | Larry Packard design

Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

Tommy Fleetwood (+1400)

Justin Thomas (+1400)

Xander Schauffele (+1600)

Sepp Straka (+2200)

Corey Conners (+2500)

Shane Lowry (+2500)

Sam Burns (+3000)

Will Zalatoris (+3000)

Tom Kim (+3300)

Jordan Spieth (+3500)

Michael Kim (+4000)

Alex Smalley (+4500)

Lucas Glover (+4500)

Adam Scott (+5000)

J.T. Poston (+5000)

Taylor Moore (+5000)

Luke Clanton (+5000)

Jake Knapp (+5500)

Keith Mitchell (+5500)

Viktor Hovland (+5500)

Picks to Win the Valspar Championship

Shane Lowry (25/1)

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The Irishman has once again had a wonderful Florida Swing. He tied for 11th at the Cognizant Classic, grabbed solo seventh at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and earned a share of 20th at THE PLAYERS. Lowry has made just two starts at the Valspar, with his best finish (T-12) coming in 2022. Copperhead forces a lot of approach shots with mid- and long-irons and Lowry is one of the best players on TOUR with that part of the bag. He’s due, he’s just gotta get it done.

Luke Clanton (50/1)

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Surely the still-amateur won’t win, right? Right? Ehh, not so fast. At his last TOUR start, the FSU star tied for 18th at the Cognizant Classic. Plus, Data Golf lists Sea Island GC, host of the RSM Classic, as the third-best course fit to Copperhead. At last year’s RSM, Clanton was one of the runners-up. The kid is going to win soon and I don’t want to miss it. Plus, 50/1 feels like a great number for a player of Luke’s caliber.

Jake Knapp (55/1)

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Knapp will make his tournament debut this week, so there’s no course history for us to go off of. However, he’s been playing like one of the best players in the world since the Genesis Invitational and that kind of form at this number is too good to pass up. He tied for 17th at Torrey Pines, for 25th in Mexico after making the cut on the number, for sixth at the Cognizant Classic, and for 12th at THE PLAYERS. Copperhead is a perfect track for Knapp’s stinger mini-driver off the tee, so watch for him to do some carving.

Sam Ryder (170/1)

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This is my super-long-shot play for the week. Ryder’s played some great golf at the Valspar over the last few years after missing three straight cuts from 2019-2022, finishing T-19 in 2023 and T-33 last season. So far in 2025, he’s made seven of seven cuts and has grabbed three top-25 finishes, including a tie for 14th at THE PLAYERS. Again, this is a monster longshot, just sprinkle.