Picks to Win and Best Bets for the 2025 Mexico Open

Goodbye, sushi and In-and-Out. Hello, tamales, tacos, and superior tasting bottled Cola-Cola.

After a few weeks in California, the PGA Tour is south of the border for the 2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, the last stop before the Florida Swing.

Thanks to its tough spot on the calendar, the field in Vallarta lacks star power and household names. Even Maverick McNealy, who was the highest-ranked player slated to tee it up come Thursday, withdrew from the event on Monday after a second-place finish at the Genesis Invitational behind Ludvig Aberg.

Jake Knapp, the event’s defending champion, returns with hopes of going back-to-back. The 30-year-old has made six starts already this season, highlighted by a share of 17th last week at Torrey Pines.

Some of the other names in the field include Akshay Bhatia, Rasmus and Nicolai Hojgaard, Patrick Rodgers, Aaron Rai and Stephan Jaeger.

Sunday’s winner will go home with $1.26 million of the $7 million purse and 500 FedEx Cup points.

Now, without further adieu, let’s pick a winner, shall we?

Golf Course & Course History

VidantaWorld's Vidanta Vallarta | Par 71 | 7,436 yards

Odds to win the Mexico Open

Akshay Bhatia (+1400)

Rasmus Hojgaard (+2000)

Kurt Kitayama (+2200)

Samuel Stevens (+2200)

Michael Kim (+2500)

Patrick Rodgers (+2500)

Harry Hall (+2800)

Taylor Moore (+3000)

Stephan Jaeger (+3000)

Aaron Rai (+3300)

Beau Hossler (+3300)

Ben Griffin (+3500)

Niklas Norgaard (+4000)

Kevin Yu (+4000)

Alex Smalley (+4500)

Jake Knapp (+4500)

Thorbjorn Olesen (+4500)

C.T. Pan (+5000)

Ryan Fox (+5500)

Justin Lower (+5500)

Picks to win the Mexico Open

Akshay Bhatia (14/1)

Analysis: Do I love betting on the favorite? No. But do I love the idea of winning some money? Next Question.

Akshay has finished T-32 or better in all four of his starts this season including a T-9 finish at the Genesis Invitational. He’s the most talented player in this field, and if he wants to make a run at the U.S. Ryder Cup team, having at least one win under his belt will go a long way.

In one appearance at the Mexico Open (2023), Akshay finished solo fourth.

Patrick Rodgers (25/1)

Analysis: In his 287th Tour start, Rodgers came oh-so-close to his first win at the Genesis, but a final-round 1-under 71 wasn’t enough to get the job done. Now, he returns to Vidanta, a golf course he’s loved over the last three years. Rodgers finished solo-10th in 2022, T-10 in 2023 and T-6 in 2024. It feels inevitable at this point that Rodgers will win on Tour, and without a big name in the field, this week in Mexico feels like the perfect opportunity.

Stephan Jaeger (30/1)

Analysis: Since Vidanta began hosting the Mexico Open in 2022, only Rodgers has been better than Jaeger at this event. He tied for 15th in ‘22, for 18th in ‘23, and grabbed a share of third last season. Not too shabby. He hasn’t had his best stuff in star-studded fields so far this season, with his best finish coming at The Sentry where he tied for 36th. However, at the Sony Open where stars were hard to find, Jaeger finished T-3. In a rank-and-file field at the Mexico Open, it’s tough not to like Jaeger’s chances. At Torrey last week, the German was 19th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 14th in SG: Approach. If his putter wakes up—Jaeger was 13th in SG: Putting at Vidanta last year—he’ll contend this weekend.

Jake Knapp (45/1)

Analysis: It’s Knapp Time—I’m so sorry. Believe it or not, Knapp was 40/1 to win this event last year—which I took, btw—so getting him at 45/1 as the defending champion is virtually impossible to pass up. Knapp took advantage of his length at Torrey Pines, one of the Tour’s biggest ballparks, ranking fifth in SG: Off the Tee. He’ll be able to do the same at Vidanta, where he was 11th in that same category last year. He was also 15th in SG: Approach at the Genesis, meaning his full swing is starting to feel pretty good. If he can gain a few shots with the flat-stick, watch out.