Picks to Win & Best Bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Cog was pretty damn fun. A 59, a winner who made the cut on the number, a pure shank from Charlie Hoffman. It was good times. But now the PGA TOUR’s Florida Swing continues in the home of Mickey Mouse as an elite field is back at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has won two of the last three APIs including last season and is back to defend his title. Some of the names joining the Texan in the field are Xander Schauffle—this is his first start of 2025—Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, and Will Zalatoris.

Thanks to its elevated status as a signature event, the purse at the API is $20 million with $4 million and 700 FedEx Cup points going to the champion Sunday afternoon.

Let’s pick a winner, shall we?

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Golf Course & Course History

Bay Hill Club and Lodge | Par 72 | 7,466 yards

Odds to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Scottie Scheffler (+320)

Rory McIlroy (+750)

Ludvig Aberg (+1600)

Xander Schauffele (+1800)

Collin Morikawa (+2200)

Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)

Justin Thomas (+2800)

Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

Patrick Cantlay (+3000)

Sungjae Im (+3900)

Russell Henley (+4400)

Shane Lowry (+4900)

Will Zalatoris (+5000)

Keegan Bradley (+5500)

Sam Burns (+5500)

Viktor Hovland (+5500)

Maverick McNealy (+5500)

Wyndham Clark (+6000)

Tony Finau (+6000)

Robert MacIntyre (+6000)

Picks to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Rory McIlroy (15/2)

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McIlroy has turned Bay Hill into his personal playground. Across 10 career starts, he’s never finished worse than T-27, has grabbed six top-10s, and won in 2018. Not bad. He’s made just two starts on TOUR in 2025, but they’ve been productive. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and tied for 17th at the Genesis Invitational. To be honest, there’s not much that goes into this pick. When Rory goes to Bay Hill, he goes on the card. Plain and simple.

Justin Thomas (28/1)

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It’s kinda wild to think that the last time JT won on TOUR was the 2022 PGA Championship. That’s too long of a drought for a player of Thomas’ caliber. But could rain be coming this weekend—see what I did there? Thomas has played some great golf during the early season, finishing runner-up at The American Express and grabbing top-10 finishes in his last two starts: WM Phoenix Open (T-6) and Genesis Invitational (T-9). He’s played in the API just three times throughout his career, but he’s made it to the weekend in all three appearances and has improved his finish all three times, as well: T-49 (2015), T-21 (2023), and T-12 (2024). For an in-form JT, 28/1 is a great number.

Will Zalatoris (50/1)

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Willy Z! Welcome back to the card. Zalatoris, like JT and Rory, has played some great golf in the early months of 2025. He’s finished T-26 or better in three of his four starts, including a tie for 24th in his last start at the Genesis Invitational. He’s made the weekend all four times he’s played at the King’s Place, tying for 10th in his debut in 2021 and for fourth last season. He’s been fighting like hell to get back to form, and this tough test should play right into Zalatoris’ hands.